WHO'S ON FIRST BASE?
I DON'T KNOW HE'S OUT OF WORK SO HE DOESN'T COUNT.
The Economics of Abbott and Costello
Posted: 11/28/11 07:37 AM ET Huffington Post
By Barry Levinson, Academy Award-winning director, screenwriter and producer
Unemployment as reported is at 9 percent. But it's actually more than 16 percent. Some smart statistician came up with a distinction. A slight of hand to make the unemployment number tolerable rather than frightening. The concept was simple: 9 percent are unemployed and are actively looking for work. The 16 percent includes those who gave up and are no longer actively looking for work. So those casualties are no longer counted. They cease to exist. The 9 percent is a fake. A sham. And worthy of an Abbott & Costello routine. If that great comedy team were still alive, the routine on our unemployment woes might go something like this.
COSTELLO
I want to talk about the unemployment rate in America.
ABBOTT
Good Subject. Terrible Times. It's 9%.
COSTELLO
That many people are out of work?
ABBOTT
No, that's 16%.
COSTELLO
You just said 9%.
ABBOTT
9% Unemployed.
COSTELLO
Right 9% out of work.
ABBOTT
No, that's 16%.
COSTELLO
Okay, so it's 16% unemployed.
ABBOTT
No, that's 9%...
COSTELLO
WAIT A MINUTE. Is it 9% or 16%?
ABBOTT
9% are unemployed. 16% are out of work.
COSTELLO
IF you are out of work you are unemployed?
ABBOTT
No, you can't count the "Out of Work" as the unemployed. You have to look for work to be unemployed.
COSTELLO
BUT THEY ARE OUT OF WORK!!!
ABBOTT
No, you miss my point.
COSTELLO
What point?
ABBOTT
Someone who doesn't look for work, can't be counted with those who look for work. It wouldn't be fair.
COSTELLO
To who?
ABBOTT
The unemployed.
COSTELLO
But they are ALL out of work.
ABBOTT
No, the unemployed are actively looking for work... Those who are out of work stopped looking. They gave up. And, if you give up, you are no longer in the ranks of the unemployed.
COSTELLO
So if you're off the unemployment roles, that would count as less unemployment?
ABBOTT
Unemployment would go down. Absolutely!
COSTELLO
The unemployment just goes down because you don't look for work?
ABBOTT
Absolutely it goes down. That's how you get to 9%. Otherwise it would be 16%. You don't want to read about 16% unemployment do ya?
COSTELLO
That would be frightening.
ABBOTT
Absolutely.
COSTELLO
Wait, I got a question for you. That means they're two ways to bring down the unemployment number?
ABBOTT
Two ways is correct.
COSTELLO
Unemployment can go down if someone gets a job?
ABBOTT
Correct.
COSTELLO
And unemployment can also go down if you stop looking for a job?
ABBOTT
Bingo.
COSTELLO
So there are two ways to bring unemployment down, and the easier of the two is to just stop looking for work.
ABBOTT
Now you're thinking like an economist.
COSTELLO
I don't even know what the hell I just said!
I added the picture, I hope Huffington Post and Barry Levinson won't object to my use of their material. It is offered without comment - almost everybody loves Abbot and Costello.
the Ol'Buzzard
I love Abbott and Costello...and I love this parody. Perfect explanation of the art of deceit in statistics.
ReplyDeleteAnother of their routines which could be related is their math routine. I posted this a couple of years ago in a post about government double speak: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rLprXHbn19I
For years I've thought that the unemployment rate only counts those that are receiving unemployment benefits, which basically are the only ones looking for work as a requirement for receiving the unemployment checks is that you look for work.
ReplyDeletePoliticians in the various states have rigged things to make it harder for people collect unemployment benefits. Most states these day you can work for a year and not qualify for any unemployment benefits. That also lowers the unemployment rate.
you need to get out more..and preferably laid.
ReplyDeleteYellow Dog Granny: I should absolutely get laid more - enough is never enough.
ReplyDeletethe Ol'Buzzard